The Dismal Economic Outlook For The New Year

Jobs offshoring, financial deregulation, and ten years of wars have severely damaged the US economy and the economic prospects of 90% of the American population. The signs are everywhere in front of our eyes. They are in the income distribution data, the BLS jobs data, the Census data, the poverty figures, and the high number of food stamp recipients.

The signs are in the foreclosed and boarded up homes and the accompanying homelessness. They are in closed strip malls, in office building, warehouse, and shopping mall vacancies, and in the huge population losses of America’s manufacturing cities.

The New Economy was a hoax, like Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction” and the “war on terror.” Americans were deceived by “their” corrupt government, by greed-driven corporations, and by corporate shills among economists and the pundit class into believing that they were trading middle class “dirty fingernail” jobs in manufacturing for better middle class “clean fingernail” high-tech service jobs. Instead, reasonably paid manufacturing and professional skill jobs, such as software engineering and information technology, were traded for lowly paid jobs as waitresses and bartenders and for jobs in ambulatory health care.

Consequently, real median US income fell for the vast majority of the population. To keep consumers spending when they had no raises, the Federal Reserve used low interest rates to create a real estate and credit bubble. The low interest rates drove up housing prices, and Americans refinanced their mortgages and spent the equity in their homes. Americans maxed out credit cards. The rise in consumer indebtedness kept consumer demand growing and the economy afloat.

But there is a limit to how far debt can outpace income, and the bubble burst. And when it burst the financial fraud that had been hidden in the euphoria was revealed. That set off the financial crisis.

As the US government is controlled by financial and armaments interests and not by the people, the government responded to the financial crisis by shoveling more debt and more hardships on the American people in order that financial interests did not have to
pay for their own mistakes and crimes. Instead of blaming the responsible parties, “our” government handed the bill to the American people.

An important part of the bill is the huge number of new dollars being created in order to keep “banks too big to fail” afloat and in order to finance the federal government’s enormous budget deficit from its illegal wars. Sooner or later, the proliferation of dollars will cost the American people sharply higher prices.

We will return to the dollar crisis later in this column. First, lets look at what the loss of manufacturing and manufacturing related jobs have done to the economy and the prospects of US citizens.

In the first decade of the 21st century, Detroit, Michigan, lost 25% of its population. Gary, Indiana, lost 22%. Flint, Michigan, lost 18%. Cleveland, Ohio, lost 17%. In St. Louis, Missouri, 19% of the housing is vacant. These population losses were not the result of the Black Plague or killer viruses or a nuclear attack. They were the result of corporate CEOs, pushed by their own greed, by the greed of Wall Street and that of large retailers such as Wal-Mart, aided and abetted by “our” government, into moving millions of manufacturing, software engineering, information technology, engineering, research, development, and design jobs offshore.

The process of moving American jobs offshore left cities, counties, and states with shrunken tax base.The resulting state and local budget deficits are being used to dismantle public sector unions and to cut social services. Public assets, such as water companies, and future income streams from parking meters, toll roads and bridges, are being sold off to foreign buyers in order to insure another year of local and state government solvency.

In the first decade of the 21st century, Americans lost 5,500,000 manufacturing jobs. US employment in the manufacture of computer and electronic products fell by 40%; in the production of machinery by 30%, in motor vehicles and and parts by 44%, and in the manufacture of clothing by 66%.

In other words, in ten years the US economy was decimated by jobs offshoring for the sole purpose of higher rewards to capital in the form of multi-million dollar executive bonuses and large shareholder capital gains. A few hedge fund executives were paid a billion dollars in annual renumeration and a couple of dozen of them were paid $500 million in annual compensation. What sense does that make? Huge fortunes paid for one year’s work, not in productive activity but in destroying the financial system and the value of pensions that tens of millions of Americans had worked their lives to achieve.

While this was happening, “our” government squandered several trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan on wars based on lies and deception. The American people were lied to and deceived, and continue to be, in order that arms industries can enjoy record profits and in order that crazed neoconservative war criminals could pursue their ideology of world hegemony and empire. We were even lied to about US war casualties. As Dennis Loo points out in his book, Globalization and the Demolition of Society (2011), the 4,801 Americans killed in action in Iraq leaves out the 50,000 suicides of veterans and active duty US troops. The truth of the matter is that the casualties of the Iraq war are as high as those of the Vietnam war.

With all income gains redirected to the financial and war sectors, the distribution of income in the US has become, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the worst of all developed countries. The Central Intelligence Agency–yes, the CIA–concluded that America had achieved not only the worst income distribution of all developed countries but also a worst income distribution than Iran, Cambodia, Uganda, Nicaragua, Russia, and China. https://cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html

The economic “recovery” that Washington and the financial press hype is all talk and no reality. The “recovery” is produced by understating the inflation rate, which overstates GDP growth, and by dropping the long-term unemployed out of the measurement of unemployment. An economy, the driving engine of which has been moved offshore, cannot recover unless the economy is brought back home, and that requires the repeal of Globalism.

Overstatement is common in order to produce good news, but eventually it catches up with the spinmeisters. Last month the National Association of Realtors reported that it had overstated home sales by 3.5 million. Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) reports that the “birth/death” model, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to estimate the net affect on jobs data of unreported business closures and new start-ups, overstates the annual number of new jobs during troubled economic times by approximately one million jobs annually. Each year the accumulated monthly overstatements are quietly revised away by BLS.

Similarly, data can be understated in order to hide bad news. The understatement of inflation results from basing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on substitution rather than on a fixed basket of goods, the traditional method. During the “progressive” Clinton regime, a deceptive change was made to the CPI. If the price of a good rises, for example, sirloin steak, the higher price does not appear in the index. Instead, the CPI assumes that consumers switch from sirloin to a cheaper cut, such as round steak. Thus, the rise in prices is negated by substituting goods that represent a lower standard of living.

By understating inflation, the government has been able to produce a “recovery,” when in fact the positive economic growth number is created by counting inflation or nominal GDP growth as real GDP growth. John Williams says that when inflation is measured in the old way, prior to Clinton, the US has experienced essentially no real GDP growth in the 21st century. In other words, we have had a decade of essentially no growth in the GDP while the presstitutes in the media proclaim “recovery.”

The government’s forecasts of its budget deficits are based on the assumption that an economic recovery is underway. If in fact there is no recovery and the economy is about to worsen, the trillion dollar plus deficits that the government forecasts for as far as the eye can see will be even larger. As more debt creation likely means more money creation by the Federal Reserve, the future purchasing power of the US dollar appears to be dismal.

The federal government’s reckless issuance of debt in order to finance its hegemonic wars and the Federal Reserve’s misuse of its authority to create $16.1 trillion in secret loans to US and European banks (as revealed by the GAO audit of the Fed) have created an enormous number of new dollars. In addition, financial deregulation has resulted in banks creating paper claims on real assets that far exceed the value of the underlying real assets. This is an untenable situation. How is it likely to be resolved?

This is a two-part question: there is the banks’ debt and there is the federal government’s debt. Both are serious problems.

Mortgage-backed derivatives exceed the value of the homes, and Credit Default Swaps and other financial innovations have resulted in the paper claims on assets exceeding the value of the underlying real assets. Consider Credit Default Swaps, a form of unreserved “insurance.” Investors, really speculators, do not have to own a Greek government bond or a mortgage-backed derivative in order to purchase a “swap” that insures its value. Thus, the total value of swaps issued on Greek bonds, for example, can far exceed the total value of Greek bonds. The value of swaps issued on mortgage-backed securities can exceed the total value of mortgaged real estate.

Financial institutions, such as US banks, that sold “swaps” on Greek bonds were gambling that Greece would be bailed out and would not default. The financial institutions regarded as gravy the fees paid to them for “guarantees” on which they cannot make good. I don’t know the extent of swaps on sovereign debt, but I recently saw a report that the Bank of America alone has sold $2.1 trillion in swaps on sovereign debt. Imagine the crisis if the Bank of America had to pay off these swaps.

Obviously, if European sovereign debt blows up, the US financial crisis will become deeper.

The GAO audit of the Federal Reserve showed that the Fed made secret loans to banks of $16.1 trillion between December 2007 and June 2010. To put that figure in perspective, it is larger than the US GDP and larger than the US public debt. In other words, it took a tremendous amount of new money to keep the financial system from collapsing. Despite this huge sum pumped into the banking system, the banks are still regarded as weak and troubled. The insecurity of bank depositors is reflected in the one basis point interest rate on Treasury bill money funds. Many Americans are willing to receive a negative interest rate in order to have their money in instruments that can be paid off with newly created money.

When the paper claims on assets exceed the value of the underlying assets, one solution could be slow write downs of bad paper over time as the banks’ profits permit. This would require suspending the mark-to-market rule and permitting the banks to remain “solvent” by counting bad assets as good until profits permitted write-downs.

This would be a sensible solution if the banks have profitable prospects. But with consumers too indebted and broke to borrow and the consumer market too impaired for good sales prospects for businesses, what profitable prospects do banks have? Only those created by the Federal Reserve’s support of the “carry trade,” the ability of financial institutions to borrow from the Federal Reserve at essentially zero interest rates and to put the money in Greek and Italian sovereign debt. This is gambling, otherwise known as “casino banking.”

If reality rules out the solution of gradual write-downs, all that remains is bankruptcy or inflation. The Federal Reserve and the US government have ruled out permitting the banks to fail. That leaves inflation.

Except for a relatively few indexed Treasury bonds, financial instruments are in nominal values. Thus bad debts can be inflated away by driving up the nominal values of the underlying real assets and the nominal values of wages and salaries. It seems that the path that policymakers are taking is to reduce the purchasing power of money in order to drive up nominal asset values so that they exceed the claims against them.

For example, consider a person with a $200,000 mortgage whose home, if he could sell it, is only worth $175,000. This person’s asset is under water. However, if inflation drives up the price of his home to $250,000, the person has gone from a balance sheet $25,000 in the red to one $50,000 in the black. It seems clear that in order to save the financial institutions and itself, the government will sacrifice the purchasing power of the dollar.

Thus, the same solution appears to be in effect for the government’s growing debt. For the moment the US dollar is benefitting from flight from the euro due to the hyped sovereign debt crisis in Europe. As in the past, a scared financial world takes refuge in the dollar and in US Treasury debt instruments. The main difference between Greece’s indebtedness and America’s is that Greece cannot print euros, but the US can print dollars. Thus holders of US debt can always get back the nominal dollar value of Treasury debt issues. Of course, the real purchasing power of these printed dollars can be very low.

The dollar as a refuge is a short-run phenomenon. Once the transfer out of euros into dollars has occurred, how does the Treasury sell the next round of bonds to finance trillion dollar deficits? Sooner or later the Federal Reserve will be back to monetizing the new Treasury bond issues, that is, the Federal Reserve will create new money with which to purchase the new Treasury bond issues.

Sooner or later the new money will find its way into the economy and drive up prices, or the continual monetization of new US Treasury debt will cause the world to lose confidence in the dollar. Heavy sales of US dollars in currency markets would drive down the exchange value of the dollar and raise the prices of imports such as energy, manufactured goods, and food. Either way inflation is the result. Indeed, both can occur together, which is the likely result.

Normally, inflation is associated with a booming economy, but as too much of the US economy has been moved offshore, there is little left to boom other than prices. Therefore, the combination of high inflation with high unemployment is a likely fate that awaits Americans.

I cannot predict how long policymakers can hold economic armageddon at bay with spin, money creation, currency swaps, intervention in gold and silver markets, and outright lies. The onset could be sudden and take place this year, but we shouldn’t underestimate the power of spin over a gullible public that trusts “their” government and fervently believes that Muslim terrorists are out to get them and that the demise of the Constitution, the product of a eight hundred year struggle that produced Anglo-American civil liberty, is worth the price of “safety.”

There is no safety in a police state and a debauched currency. The comfortable world that Americans have known is falling apart at the seams.

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About Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His internet columns have attracted a worldwide following. His latest book, The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West is now available.

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  1. Oh dear. Another a tempt at pushing the big lie. See Bary Ritholtz’s article. And another by some ex-banker in the NYT.

    By: me . January 7, 2012 . 11:47 pm |

    • Meant as a reply to Guy’s comment.

      By: me . January 7, 2012 . 11:49 pm |

  2. Pingback: Anonymous . January 8, 2012 . 3:55 am

  3. Great article Dr Roberts. Did you ever think about going on a speaking tour to all the Colleges here in America?. The American people have to hear the truth and not all these lies coming out of Washington the last 20 years. American people better wake up very soon, I can’t understand why the democratic party don’t run another candidate against Obama in the democratic primary election. The final nail in Obams coffin was when he signed this NDAA. Our last hope for America is RON PAUL. Keep up the great work Dr. Roberts.

    By: John Ellenz . January 8, 2012 . 9:43 pm |

  4. Well, Rocky Anderson looks attractive at first glance, especially, as he wants to start a new political party aptly named the Justice Party, but as to whether or not he will succeed is anybody’s guess. Remember what happened to H. Ross Perot, George Wallace and the Kennedys. No one can challenge a system so corrupt and criminal as this mob in D.C. without feeling the heat.
    The entire government from top to bottom is nothing more than a criminal enterprise run by a crime syndicate. From the White House down to the lowest courts there is nothing but corruption, antagonism towards the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, servitude to the zionist mafia, the military industrial complex and the corporate oligarchy.
    Only by an outright repudiation of this system, meaning a total rejection of both parties and their crime bosses can we even begin to regain America. We will need to replace both parties first by completely overwhelming election results that cannot be defrauded. The placing those who support and obey the Constitution, the Bill of Rights who will then exercise only those powers granted them by the Constitution.
    This will be a long row to hoe and filled with rocks and stones. Both parties will do anything and everything to maintain their power…..even if they have to use violent force.
    Remember these bastards play for keeps…..

    By: JohnZ . January 9, 2012 . 3:38 pm |

  5. Rocky Anderson?

    “Anderson, whose 2002 Olympic theme was “Strength Through Diversity,”[96] advocated repeatedly for the interests of minority communities in Salt Lake City.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocky_Anderson

    All this stuff is tied together. The same people who opened our borders, off shored our jobs and involve us in endless foreign wars are the same people who integrated our society for the worse not the better.

    Strength through diversity? I will refrain from profanity but only profanity and epithets can adequately respond to such an absurd lie. Open borders and off shoring amount to the same thing. It’s a racial thing. Yeah, strength for them not us. Strength for non-whites.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCZcsXN7otM

    By: Jim . January 9, 2012 . 8:08 pm |

  6. Think of the homosexual Congress Critter Bernie Frank’s minority real estate bank loan “enablements”-are these and publicity about the swindlers who use this to defraud the system just pubic entertainments, a false play to divert the public from the ‘real’ theft that is ongoing: the economic fraud Dr. Roberts describes? Forced bank loans for the benefit of a minority that forms a significant part of Rep. Frank’s constituency? Some may be honest & pay these public subsidized favoured ‘loans’ down, others will not. But is this “criticism” just a diversion from what Dr. Roberts says here? A PR trick to distract the audience from what is really important, the problems Dr. Roberts describes?

    By: Robert Felix . January 10, 2012 . 1:56 am |

  7. The American people must declare their independence from the federal government. SECEDE! SECEDE! SECEDE!

    Upon achieving independence, some of these new republics will institute Rule of Law, gold standard & precious metals currencies.

    Only with precious metals currencies can an indvidual actually save the fruits of their labor. An economy/society, whether micro or macro, cannot grow without savings.

    The globalists, who own our government, have declared war on the basic human rights of LIFE, LIBERTY, and PROPERTY.

    We can defeat them without firing a shot. SECEDE! SECEDE! SECEDE! Let those who wish to remain under the boot their fascist government do so. Those of us bold enough to start over must be allowed to seperate.

    PEACE

    By: Roger A. Huddleston . January 11, 2012 . 3:28 pm |

  8. Understanding economics in America

    At the turn of the 20th century an approach to doing business called scientific manufacturing was created by Fredrick Taylor and Henry Ford. These ideas about how to manage production led to the development of vertical integration of business activities. Vertical integration allows a company to control manufacturing and profit upstream from their product. For example Ford might develop rubber plantations in South America to sell rubber to Firestone Tire Company, own stock in Firestone, which sold tires to Ford Motor Company for their cars. In this way Ford was making a profit at each step of the production process. More importantly, Ford could take a profit at any point in the production process. Ford did not have to maximize profit on the demand product, the vehicle, rather Ford could sell the vehicles as cheaply as possible thereby making greater profit on each of the components that went into the production of the vehicles. The vehicles came to be called the demand item or business driver. Profit could be taken anywhere in the manufacturing process, not necessarily on the demand item. This idea of Ford’s became the basis for supply chain management.

    In the 1930’s after the FED caused the crash of the US economy the U.S. government began to reorient American society away from shop manufacturing and toward corporate capitalist model of mass production. This was done all over the world, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, and Japan.

    A good example of the shop capitalist business model that existed before the turn of the 20th Century is Montgomery Ward, Sears and Roebuck, and J.C. Penney. These catalog sales companies served as a clearinghouse for literally 10,000 suppliers of goods and services produced in the United States. All these various goods and services were branded under each company’s corporate logo to give them the appearance of unified manufacturing. The major suppliers of these goods for Wards, Sears, and Penney’s were small independent U.S. businesses: This model of business was transported to Japan by companies like Sony, Panasonic, and Yamaha.

    In the 1930’s the government and industry used the ideas from scientific manufacturing to refloat the US economy. Just as Henry Ford and the industrialist had used vertical integration of business to take a profit at any point in the production process, the government conceived of the idea of turning cost centers (social costs) into profit centers and taking a profit at various points in the economy.
    Take social costs such as insurance, medical services, education, the money supply, (the FED), the IRS tax system and accounting services, housing, road building and even the postal service could be turned into profit centers. All these social expenses, when used as profit centers could refloat the economy. In theory the nation could spend themselves’ rich by making a profit on each service and product that they delivered to the market.

    In an isolated island economy this inflating social costs simply creates a new the base line for doing business. It is worth observing that all these social costs that are turned into profit centers have the effect of increasing the cost of living, the cost of goods sold, and the cost of doing business. Now add to these social expenses turned into profit centers, the burden of a tax on production, which directly increases the cost of goods sold and decreases after tax business income. All these artificial profit centers make US products and services noncompetitive in world markets.

    It doesn’t take long at all to figure out how to circumvent this system, simply manufacture offshore and sell your products to a subsidiary in the US at value added prices. Simply, don’t take profits in the US. A company takes their profits outside of the US and avoids paying income tax and many of the social expenses. In fact, a companies US subsidiary might even show an operating loss, if the market does not support the level of value adding that these companies have transferred to their products. The next step is to own equity positions, stocks, outside of the US market. One way to accomplish that is to run down stock prices in some sort of a stock market crash, and then sell your stocks (owned in the US) to your subsidiary offshore. The sweet part of this is that the company can declare a tax or paper loss on the sell of the stocks that they sold to their subsidiary.

    This is what is happening in the US economy. The US economic model is fundamentally flawed. When this, spend yourself rich, economic model was presented by John Maynard Keynes, his critics said, in the long run it will bankrupt the country, and paraphrasing, Keynes replied , in the long run we are all dead. They were both right.

    By: John Beasley . January 16, 2012 . 12:31 am |

    • You are correct. I spent 30 years as a manufacturing Engineer for Hewlett Packard. For 15 years we developed hand held calculators whie slowly shipping our production lines to Malaysia, China and Brazil. Then we developed massive production lines for ink jet pen production. Following the calculator model, all lines were eventually shipped to Singapore, Ireland and Puerto Rico. Low or no taxes, low labor rate and higher profit was the plan. Big surprise, in 2003 after we had developed, shipped and trained the offshore plants, we were told we no longer had value to HP and would be asked to leave by early retirement or voluntary severance. In 2005 I took the severance package, because they would soon become layoffs without any compensation. Is this the global plan? Strip the US of it’s manufacturing base and shift everyone remaining into the service industries? My degreed son has been searching for a job in Marketing for over a year. He may end up retraining for a service trade job that allow him to make a living. I fear a major revolution is around the corner. Plus a forced war with Iran as Israel wants, will keep us busy since it may be WWIII.

      By: Novakenss . January 16, 2012 . 11:32 am |

    • John:

      I found much of what you said educational, but I have to disagree with two areas. The Fed didn’t crash the economy in the 1930s, capitalism did that very nicely on its own, just as it did in the 2000′s. And the growth of governmental expenditures in the period leading into, during and since WW II was not a mimicry by the state of private corporate behavior and profit-making for the state. It was a response to the new number one status of the U.S. imperialist empire in the post-WW II period, the need and possibility of buttressing U.S. economic might (its new colonial empire), of forestalling revolutions, of promoting the domestic side of the Fordist regime of domestic spending, and a compact between big labor and big capital in which labor gave up the goal of revolution in exchange for a bigger piece of the pie. Runaway shops are not a response by capital to the government making production more expensive domestically for it; runaway shops are a result of the drive of capital to find the cheapest ways to expand its profit-making. The idea that globalization is occurring because of a spendthrift state is a mistake. Globalization is occurring for the same reasons fundamentally that capitalism has always eventually breached its national boundaries – the pursuit of cheap resources and cheap labor.

      By: Dennis Loo . January 16, 2012 . 11:46 am |

  9. I love reading Dr. Robert’s columns..what I would really like to see is Dr. Robert’s to either write a column or debate Webster Griffin Tarpley and point out the fallacies in Dr. Tarpley’s view on solutions to the crisis before us as far as the banking sector is concerned. I would hope Dr. Robert’s reads this and be aware that Dr. Tarpley is laying blame of deregulation at the Reagan administrations doorstep. Blaming the “Austrian” economists.

    By: Trent . January 17, 2012 . 6:20 pm |

  10. In short: I have been convinced to the fiscal tin-foil-hat-wearers regarding the market. Has anybody identified a ray of optimism in this “downturn”?

    By: Gwenda Felkner . January 19, 2012 . 10:53 am |

  11. Actually, I know exactly what you suggest about the economic system. The inflation is bad enough and we can tell it is going to exacerbate. oof.

    By: Adrienne Cutshall . January 19, 2012 . 6:09 pm |

  12. When you hear more than half the talk drivel, they are all pushing gold and silver as being a fail-safe measure to the dilemma. Although, my personal experience has been the sales guys never stop dialing ‘n’ bothering you,plus the marginis rather bad unless you visit a neighborhood coin shop.

    By: Avis Bruce . January 19, 2012 . 6:24 pm |

  13. avis, to a certain degree you are correct, however there are, as you already know two types of gold and silver purchases: one that is only on paper and the other for physical possession. Obtaining physical silver as in coins seems to be the safest bet. After all what else are you going to be able to use when the collapse hits? Certainly a system of barter is going to take over to some degree and it is already starting to take place here and there. Owning physical silver such as coins will be to an advantage as it already represents real physical wealth which will be usable anywhere. Gold on the other hand will be quite useless as its value is too high to be used for day to day usage.
    Don’t forget to plant a food garden… as much as you can.

    By: JohnZ . January 20, 2012 . 2:40 pm |

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    By: Avememamy . January 23, 2012 . 10:32 am |

  15. Paul Craig Roberts: In the first decade of the 21st century, Americans lost 5,500,000 manufacturing jobs. US employment in the manufacture of computer and electronic products fell by 40%; in the production of machinery by 30%, in motor vehicles and and parts by 44%, and in the manufacture of clothing by 66%.

    Anatoly Karlin : “The US industrial output by physical volume today is no smaller than it was in 1970, the apogee of its industrial phase.”

    An interesting juxtaposition of insights. (I do not mean to detract from the significance of each.) It’s showing me the incompleteness of my understanding.

    By: Levantine . February 19, 2012 . 4:31 am |

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