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Paul Craig Roberts
Institute for Political Economy
Israel and the US Armaments Industry Are Elbowing Aside Peace Negotiations
This is US Representatie Marjorie Taylor Greene: the Firebrand Republican Member of the house:
https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1918351681374581181
She says Trump is losing support.
It does seem that Trump’s peace promises have been elbowed off the agenda by Israel and the US armaments industry.
Washington has approved a $310 million F-16 support package for Ukraine, and Trump threatens more sanctions for Russia. https://www.rt.com/news/616689-us-approves-f16-support-ukraine/ It appears that the deal Trump wants does not coincide with the one Zelensky wants or the one that Putin wants. Will coercion take the place of negotiation?
The peace negotiations with Iran seem even less favorable. The terms specified by the US Secretary of State are unacceptable to Iran, and Washington has returned to war threats.
The analysis below is from a realist, not a narrative supporter, and it is grim. Make of it what you will:
Following the last (third) meeting between the US and Iran held a week ago, a “senior US official” reported that “The talks in Muscat were positive and productive. There is still much to do, but further progress was made on getting to a deal.” The Omani Foreign Minister also stated, “U.S-Iran talks today identified a shared aspiration to reach agreement based on mutual respect and enduring commitments. Core principles, objectives and technical concerns were all addressed.” My impression was that the talks were focusing on the same principles that the previous JPCOA agreement (which Trump abrogated) had embodied, which would have resulted in Iran forgoing the production of weapons-grade uranium (and the elimination of Iran’s current stockpile of 60% enriched uranium).
Statements made on May 2 by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (copied below) reveal that, once again, the negotiating position of the US on Iran appears to have radically changed. The US has reinstated the Zionist list of demands that go far beyond limiting the production of weapons-grade uranium: Iran must (1) eliminate all capacity to enrich uranium (which it is allowed to do under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, for uses in its civilian nuclear energy program), (2), eliminate its arsenal of long-range ballistic missiles (which are essential for Iran’s defense against Israel et al), and (3) stop all support of the Houthis in Yemen.
Rubi’s comments came as the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington, set to take place in Rome today (May 3), were postponed indefinitely. An Iranian official cited by Reuters said a new date for the talks would be set “depending on the US approach.” Iran has been quite clear that its uranium enrichment and its defense capabilities are non-negotiable. In other words, the latest US demands — which have resulted in the cancellation of further talks with Iran — are designed to be unacceptable and create the excuse to launch major attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities.
When he took office, Trump had the opportunity to immediately stop the flow of munitions, arms, and money to both Israel and Ukraine, which would have quickly ended the ability of both nations to continue supplying their respective armed forces, bringing a relatively quick end to the Ukraine War and the ethnic cleansing in Gaza. But Trump quickly abandoned his campaign promises to avoid entangling the US in any more foreign wars, which for decades have wasted trillions of dollars that could have been used to rebuild the US crumbling infrastructure and de-industrialized economy.
Trump instead accepted the Zionist neocon demands that the US continue its unconditional support of the ongoing Israeli slaughter and starvation of the Palestinians, and as a result, he has started a new war with Yemen, because — in defense of the Palestinians — the Yemeni Houthis dared to blockade all ship traffic going to and from Israel in the Red Sea. Under Trump, the US “Operation Rough Rider Protect Genocide” has carried out 1000 bombing raids against Yemen, which have killed hundreds of Yemeni civilians but have failed to break the blockade.
Considering the abject failure of the current military attacks on the Houthis, it makes absolutely no military sense for the US to launch a similar air campaign against Iran — a nation like Yemen that has spent decades preparing for just such an attack. Iran has a multitude of deeply buried missile cities, which include underground military bases and silos where Iran stores and deploys its missile arsenal. These missile cities are strategically located throughout Iran, and they include large, deeply buried underground tunnels, storage facilities, and launch silos for missiles. The US and Israel may know the location of many of these sites (especially the nuclear sites), but they cannot use conventional weapons to effectively destroy them.
Only an attack with nuclear weapons has the capacity to thoroughly destroy nuclear facilities that are buried deep inside a mountain or underground (this would not assure the destruction of the 60% enriched uranium supplies that Iran has already produced, as it may have already been moved elsewhere). The US is highly unlikely to attack Iran with nuclear weapons.
But would the current Israeli leadership shy away from using nuclear weapons against the Iranian nuclear facilities? Israel has already had no qualms about killing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. Israel has several hundred nuclear weapons that can be “delivered” by planes, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles — including submarine-launched cruise missiles carried by their 4 German diesel subs. An Israeli nuclear strike against Iran would trigger a full-scale Iranian attack on Israel, and all-out war would ensue.
Even if a US-Israeli attack on Iran was initially limited to the use of conventional non-nuclear weapons, there has been public discussion that such an attack would target Iranian political and military leaders. This type of attack would involve hitting Iranian cities as well as Iranian military bases. It would be a huge strike, and one that would almost guarantee that Iran would retaliate against US bases in the Middle East, US naval forces that participated in the attack — as well as against Israeli military bases, military leaders, and Israeli political leaders. The three largest cities of Israel (Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa, which hold at least 20% of the total population of Israel) would be struck. After such an attack, I think Israel would retaliate with nuclear weapons against both civilian and military targets in Iran.
In other words, regardless of whether or not the initial strike on Iran would include nuclear weapons, it is almost inevitable that nuclear weapons would be used in the war that would result.
The Israeli propaganda is that Iranian air defenses have already been destroyed, making a large air attack against Iran quite feasible (a “cakewalk”). I think this is a false assumption, created by Israel to help draw the Americans into a joint attack. The idea is that once the air defenses are completely taken out, and the Iranian political and military leaders have been killed, the scenario recently seen in Syria (with the utter collapse of the Assad government) will play out again, this time in Iran. The incredible hubris of the Trump White House seems to lend itself to accepting this idea. The latest change in the US “negotiating” position via Iran suggests that Trump will succumb to the Zionist pressure to wage war against Iran.
If the reports from Alastair Crooke are correct, the Russian and Iranian air defense systems are in good working order and actually fended off the last attempt by Israel to take them out (in October 2024). If this is the case, I think the US and Israeli forces will suffer major losses if they send their air forces to attack Iran military and nuclear sites. Russia will be providing real-time intelligence to Iran; the Russian air base in Tartus, Syria, has S-400 radar systems that can detect an Israeli attack; Iran also has an over-the-horizon radar system that could provide an early warning of an aerial attack. Will the US be able to effectively pierce Russian and Iranian air defense systems? If not, then I suspect that under such circumstances, as the desperation levels of the attackers increase, the use of nuclear weapons becomes even more likely.
Let us hope that the reports copied below — in which the US Secretary of State Rubio has announced the latest US demands on Iran — are simply one more flip flop in Trump’s bizarre manner of threatening extreme action against any nation that doesn’t follow his latest diktats. If not, then all Hell is going to break loose in the Middle East sometime in the near future.
Rubio says Iran must abandon its uranium enrichment program
By Vaughn Cockayne – The Washington Times – Friday, May 2, 2025
A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran must “walk away” from all nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs, taking a public hard line as negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue.
In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Mr. Rubio said there can be no long-lasting deal between the U.S and Iran if Tehran is unwilling to give up several initiatives.
“They have to walk away from sponsoring terrorists, they have to walk away from helping the Houthis, they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from enrichment,” Mr. Rubio said Thursday
Mr. Rubio went on to suggest that Iran could import enriched uranium, so it would not have to abandon its domestic commercial nuclear industry completely. He added that the U.S. must be allowed to inspect Iranian nuclear and military facilities regularly.
Iran has long maintained that its nuclear enrichment program is for civilian and commercial use and has denied seeking a nuclear weapon. Its foreign ministers have asserted repeatedly that it will not give up its nuclear sovereignty during negotiations.
Nuclear watchdogs and U.S. officials say Iran’s level of nuclear enrichment is far higher than what would be necessary for purely civilian purposes. During the past month’s talks, some have floated the possibility of Iran transferring ownership of its enriched uranium to a foreign ally like Russia. Iran’s foreign ministry has publicly declined to accept such an offer.
“If you have the ability to enrich at 3.67%, it only takes a few weeks to get to 20%, then 60% and then the 80 and 90% that you need for a weapon,” Mr. Rubio said Thursday.
Mr. Rubio’s comments on Thursday detail the deep divisions still in play during negotiations. The U.S. seeks limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile program in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, President Trump has repeatedly said that if Tehran and Washington are unable to come to a deal, he would launch bombing raids on Iran with Israel’s help. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth issued a firm warning to Iran on Thursday, urging the Islamic Republic to halt its funding of Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Negotiators were expected to meet again in Rome on Saturday, but Omani mediators announced Thursday that talks had been postponed over logistical issues.
Iran must ‘walk away’ from all uranium enrichment, Rubio says
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-must-walk-away-all-uranium-enrichment-rubio-says-2025-05-02/
May 2 (Reuters) – Iran has to ‘walk away’ from uranium enrichment and long-range missile development and it should allow Americans to inspect its facilities, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday as a round of nuclear talks was postponed.
Rubio’s comments underscore the major remaining divisions in talks between the countries to resolve the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to bomb Iran if there is no agreement.
“They have to walk away from sponsoring terrorists, they have to walk away from helping the Houthis (in Yemen), they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from enrichment,” Rubio said in an interview on the Hannity programme on Fox News. Iran has repeatedly said it will not give up its missile programme or its uranium enrichment – a process used to make fuel for nuclear power plants but which can also yield material for an atomic warhead.
On Thursday a senior Iranian official told Reuters that the scheduled fourth round of talks due to take place in Rome on Saturday had been postponed and that a new date would be set “depending on the U.S. approach”.